Research on the Impact of ARMA Model on Stock Price Prediction

Abstract

Japanese government’s first discharge of nuclear wastewater occurred on August 24, 2023. This study selects the closing prices of Guolian Aquatic Products (300094) over a period of 87 days from April 3 to August 13, 2023, as the sample. Using Stata 17 software and the ARMA model, the study forecasts the closing prices for the 14 days following August 13 and compares these predicted values with the actual stock prices during that period. The research finds that the error between the predicted and actual closing prices is relatively small before the discharge announcement, but increases significantly after the discharge. Additionally, Japan's discharge of nuclear wastewater has a short-term positive impact on the stock prices of the fishery sector. This indicates that the ARMA model can be effectively used for short-term stock price prediction with favorable results, and it also reflects the extent to which sudden events can influence stock prices.