Using ETS And SARIMA To Fit the Prices of Ice Cream
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/bm6mn886Keywords:
ETS; SARIMA; ice cream.Abstract
The accurate prediction of economic variables is important in economics, as expectation plays a crucial role in decision-making. The prediction of the prices of ice cream, which is a common dessert, is an interesting and little investigated topic. The paper uses both ETS and SARIMA models to fit the monthly average prices of ice cream in the United States from 1980-2020 and build a forecasting model. Then a comparison between the two models using MAE and RMSE on the test set as measures of the goodness of fit is made. The paper shows that the ETS model has a lower RMSE and MAE on the test set than the SARIMA model. The paper concludes that the ETS model may provide more accurate results when predicting the prices of ice cream. The paper discusses an interesting topic and provides a new perspective on the prediction of the prices of ice cream.
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