Analysis of California's Accommodation GDP Based on the ARIMA Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/prkpxe60Keywords:
Time Series Forecasting; ARIMA Model; ADF test; Model Caliber; California's Annual Accommodation GDP.Abstract
This study focuses on forecasting the future trajectory of California's annual accommodation GDP using an ARIMA model. This study utilizes annual accommodation GDP data for California from 1997 to 2023, comprising 27 observations, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift model is established and reasonable predictions are made about future changes in California's annual accommodation GDP. In building the model, this study employed a variety of tests, such as the stationarity test of the data, the white noise test of the data, the significance test of parameter estimates, the significance test of the model, etc., to construct the most appropriate model. The model chosen in this study is ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift, and the prediction shows that California's annual accommodation GDP will still show a significant upward trend in the future. Based on the research results, this study proposes that people need to prepare more funds to deal with the rising cost of accommodation in California or look for a partner to share the cost of accommodation.
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