Resolving the Opioid Crisis in the United States: A Time-series Analysis on the Efficacy of Major Federal Policies

Abstract

The opioid crisis has emerged as one of the most pressing public health emergencies in the United States, with overdose deaths increasing more than tenfold since 1999. This study investigates the impact of major federal policies on opioid-related harms, with a focus on respiratory depression, the leading cause of opioid overdose mortality. Using data from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) between 2015 and 2025, the analysis combines opioid distribution and adverse event data into a monthly time series, incorporating key policy interventions as structural breaks. The study evaluates both short-term policy effects and long-term trends through forecasting models like SARIMAX, Prophet, and LSTM. Results indicate that opioid distribution strongly predicts adverse outcomes, with a one to two-month lag, reinforcing the link between prescription practices and patient adverse effects. Policies like the 2016 CDC Opioid Prescribing Guidelines and the 2018 SUPPORT Act produced measurable reductions in adverse event growth, while others had limited statistical significance. The findings emphasize that resolving an epidemic requires a comprehensive strategy that implements both supply control through proper regulations and market control through patient-centered education and harm reduction initiatives.